To appreciate what it will take for the United States to advance to the second round, you only need to analyze the World Cup field on the eve of the tournament. If you throw out the teams that don’t have a chance of winning the World Cup, you can begin by discarding all the teams from CONCACAF, Asia and Africa (Nigeria’s Eagles have looked anything but super). That leaves 20 European and South American teams. You can quickly narrow the list down. Austria’s 3-0 loss to the United States says everything you need to know about its chances. Belgium should do no better than it did in its last four appearances. Bulgaria and Romania aren’t what they were four years ago. Croatia isn’t what it was in England two years ago. Scotland and England, with Gazza, don’t have the impact players needed to win a World Cup. The same goes for the two Scandinavian teams, Denmark and Norway. Of the South American contingent, Chile, Colombia and Paraguay are out. Eight teams are left: defending champion Brazil, host France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Argentina, Germany and Yugoslavia. History isn’t on Brazil’s side. No team has a team successfully defended its title since 1962. Only once has a South American team won in Europe. France has never had much luck in the World Cup. Italy lacks a dynamic midfielder. The Netherlands has a history of internal problems. That leaves four title contenders. On paper, Argentina and Spain are the most balanced teams in the tournament, both possessing the right blend of skill players and workers. It’s just the U.S.’s luck that the other two teams are both in its group: Germany, the ultimate tournament team, and Yugoslavia, with as much individual talent as any in the field. With that in mind, here’s one prediction of the World Cup from the quarterfinals onwards. Quarterfinals: France over Italy, Spain over Brazil, Argentina over Yugoslavia, Germany over Croatia. Semifinals: Spain over Argentina, Germany over France. Final: Spain over Germany.