European interest in American players may not be booming like some expected, but how MLS handles the offers it gets will be closely scrutinized.
Don't expect an exodus – at least not anytime soon. The U.S. national team's impressive performance at the 2002 World Cup led many to suspect that overseas demand for American players would surge and that MLS would be parting with several of its top stars.
But for a variety of reasons, it seems unlikely that more than three players will jump across the pond, if that many. The factors limiting the chances of U.S. players going abroad include:
Age. Of the 11 MLS players on the U.S. World Cup team, four are over 30 (Jeff Agoos, Cobi Jones, Carlos Llamosa, Tony Meola) and therefore of no interest to European clubs. Even Brian McBride, 29, and Eddie Pope, 28, are past the ideal age range for new acquisitions.
Existing contracts. Landon Donovan's rights are already owned by Bayer Leverkusen. The peculiar loan agreement between MLS and the German club makes it difficult to figure out where Donovan will end up, but because he has clearly stated a desire to remain in the States, there seems little reason for other teams to pursue him.
Josh Wolff inked a contract extension just before the World Cup that reportedly will pay him well over the league ''maximum'' of $270,000 per season through 2008. It now seems highly doubtful that Wolff would leave that sort of security for the risks of Europe.
The European market. With several television contracts in Europe recently falling through or being re-negotiated, the transfer market has changed dramatically. Clubs are trying to avoid transfer fees whenever possible because many players have allowed their deals to expire on purpose so that they are now available as free agents.
Value discrepancies. European clubs are looking outside the traditional pipelines for players more than ever, but a player's success in MLS still lacks context for scouts overseas. Fair or not, many abroad are skeptical about the level of play in this young, small league and not enough players have made a successful transition from MLS to Europe to alter that perception.
Furthermore, the U.S. national team players are considered prized commodities by MLS, such that their value as marketable icons influences the league's asking price.
Combining all these elements means that only five MLS players from the U.S. World Cup team are realistic targets for European clubs: DaMarcus Beasley, Pablo Mastroeni, Clint Mathis, McBride and Pope.
Mathis is injured again, which puts his situation on hold until he reestablishes the form he had last year. Further diminishing the MetroStars striker's international appeal are U.S. coach Bruce Arena's criticisms of Mathis' work ethic before and during the World Cup. One MetroStars source surmised that those comments ''ruined any chance of Mathis going to Europe for the time being.'' Mathis garnered offers from Bayern Munich and Perugia (Italy) during May, but MLS turned down both.
Pope turned down at least one lucrative contract offer after the 1998 World Cup, citing his wishes to stay here with his family. Pope has said recently that he would consider offers from overseas, but that the situation would have to be ideal.
Interest from abroad in Mastroeni has been minimal so far, according to sources.
THE MAN. The philosophy and strategy that MLS adopts regarding the purchase and sale of its players largely rests with one man – Ivan Gazidis. Gazidis, the league's deputy commissioner, consults with the investors, Commissioner Don Garber and several other advisors before making big decisions, but ultimately is in charge of such issues.
During the month since the U.S. team's improbable run, Gazidis has reiterated the league's intention to keep as many of its national team members as possible.
''It will be more expensive [to keep the top American players], but I don't think it is necessarily more difficult,'' Gazidis said. ''The question is whether the expense is justified from a business perspective. I think we have the type of investors who, if it makes sense, will make the extra commitment.''
The Wolff deal was a prime example, according to Gazidis. Signing other national team stars to similar contracts would not disrupt the league's pay scale, he said.
''You're talking about a limited number of players, so I don't think the salary structure changes,'' Gazidis said. ''The U.S. players' value on the international market has risen and therefore the amount of money that is required to keep them here has risen. American players are making more money than ever.''
Gazidis says that while some players do make more than the proclaimed maximum of $270,000, that figure is all that counts against each team's salary budget in those cases. Agents familiar with the league's policies add that money above and beyond that maximum is considered a separate expenditure by investors, such that it does not chew up more of the pie set aside for player salaries.
Still, by signing more players to big contracts, MLS runs the risk of exacerbating unrest among the large contingent of players who consider themselves underpaid. The perception of disproportionate salaries or mere jealousy could increase the dissatisfaction.
Gazidis said there has been a shift in emphasis concerning how the league spends money on players. The league is openly more dedicated to signing the top American teenagers and more focused on finding less expensive, younger, foreign talent than it was in the first few seasons.
Examining the three highest-profile foreign signings in 2000 (Lothar Matthaeus, Hristo Stoitchkov, Luis Hernandez) and 2001 (Alex Pineda Chacon, John Spencer, Ian Bishop) seems to indicate a sudden departure from the established international star.
''You could say we're signing fewer big-name players, but if anything, we might be signing better players – or at least as good for less money, so we're getting smarter about it,'' says Gazidis, who refutes the notion that the 2000 trio were mistakes.
''There is a temptation to put those three signings together, but they really are different,'' he says. ''Matthaeus is a signing that paid for itself. That's literally a free player, paid for by television sales back in Germany. That one is kind of unique. In terms of our profile around the world, that's the biggest signing we've ever had.
''Stoitchkov is another type of case. He has suffered a lot of injuries, but he's done well when he has played and he's been a significant influence on some of the young players, particularly DaMarcus Beasley. I'm not sure that would be something we could see as a failure. We didn't spend a lot there; that was not a high-cost item.
''Hernandez clearly was [high cost] and clearly that was a gamble on the Mexican-American audience in L.A. that did not come through for us. I don't think I would say that was a mistake, I'd say that was something necessary that we had to try, because if we didn't, we would always be wondering about it.''
THE RUB. Several players in recent years have found it difficult to transfer to Europe while under contract with MLS – Ben Olsen, McBride, Mathis and Beasley among them. Agents, such as Craig Sharon, who represents Mathis, claim that the league refuses to set an asking price for these players, forcing suitors to give a figure they are willing to pay, only to have it rejected without a counter-offer.
''Being too protective of its players could have huge implications on the players [MLS] cares about most, which are those with the potential to go to Europe,'' said Dan Segal, who represents about 20 MLS players, including Wolff and Beasley. ''MLS is a great place for the vast majority of young American players, but the league has to be careful not to take a position that makes players hesitate to sign for fear of what will be happening down the road.''
Segal believes that allowing more players to take their shot overseas can only increase the chances that one or two find success and, in turn, improve the league's reputation.
The league now finds itself in a pickle, because it is banking on its American players to carry the burden of name-recognition. Letting several of those players flock to Europe would only fuel those who argue that the league lacks star quality – or quality soccer in general. Yet at the same time, no American player has proved capable of drawing extra fans consistently. Keeping those players against their wishes could prove detrimental in the long run.
Gazidis maintains that selling players has never been and will not be part of the league's primary streams of revenue. And he is the one most likely to be criticized if the league sets its asking prices too high or if he lets his stars go in exchange for peanuts.
Either way, don't expect an exodus.
by Soccer America Senior Editor Will Kuhns