England, France could miss the European Championship, and Yugoslavia is back in the picture The end of NATO’s bombing campaign against Yugoslavia has revived Serb hopes of competing at next year’s European Championship in Belgium and Holland. Unlike 1992, a boycott doesn’t appear on the horizon, and the Yugoslav squad’s return to qualifying after a four-month layoff signalled it as the team to beat in Group 8. Only Ireland appears capable of keeping up with Yugoslavia, and perhaps not. All depends on what UEFA decides to do about the June 5 Dublin qualifier called off when Irish authorities refused to provide the Yugoslavs with visas. Should it award Yugoslavia a win, it’s all over. So imagine a European Championship without England and France … but with Yugoslavia, against whom European nations are, officially, forbidden to compete, thanks to to a European Union ban. It could happen. England stumbled against Sweden and Bulgaria, and France’s loss to Russia leaves it plenty of work to do come September. The nine group winners ù the Czech Republic, in Group 9, is the only country that has clinched ù and the best second-place team qualify automatically for next year’s championships. The other eight second-place sides head to playoff series, with berths going to the four winners.

A look at each group:

Group 1: Italy would be on its way to the Low Countries had it beaten Switzerland in Lausanne. No matter: a win over Denmark on Sept. 8 should do the trick. The Danes’ most important battle comes four days earlier, when they’re home to Switzerland in what probably will determine the playoff qualifier. The Swiss, coming off that 0-0 draw with the Italians, are in better shape, to be sure. They have a game in hand, with Belarus and Wales on the schedule. Group 2: Norway’s in, although it will need another win or two to make it official. It has won its last four, three of them on the road, and owns a five-point lead with three games to play. The Norwegians’ chief role this fall will be in determining the runner-up: They face each of the three candidates: Greece, Slovenia, and Latvia. The Slovenians , unbeaten since a 2-1 loss to Norway last October, are the best bet for a playoff spot. Group 3: Germany appears back on track following a 6-1 dismantling of Moldova June 4. Its post-World Cup debacle started with a 1-0 loss at Turkey in the group opener last October. Coach Erich Ribbeck has carved out three impressive wins since March, and the Germans’ objective this fall shouldn’t prove difficult with a rested Oliver Bierhoff back in the lineup. The Turks, behind on goal differential, will have to settle for the playoffs. They’re done at home, and if September trips to Northern Ireland and Moldova don’t finish them off, the Germans will Oct. 9. Group 4: The most competitive group could supply the most startling omission from next year’s finals. World Cup champ France, denied Zinedine Zidane’s services the last four qualifiers, has done little against the group’s other true challengers. A victory in its showdown at leader Ukraine Sept. 4 is a must if the French, who are one point back, want to avoid a playoff. Unbeaten Ukraine (15 points) might be the best team in the group, but it’s fading, with just one win ù over Andorra ù in its last four games. Iceland (12) hadn’t lost until falling to the Russians on June 9, but its playoff hopes won’t be helped by assignments against Ukraine and France. The Russians might slip through, perhaps even win the group. They’ve won four in a row, including June wins over France and Iceland, after a dreadful 0-3 start, and their schedule isn’t bad: Armenia (home), Andorra (away), and Ukraine (home).

Troubled England

Group 5: England’s really gotten itself into a mess. Home ties against Bulgaria ù last October, under Glenn Hoddle ù and Sweden ù June 5, under Kevin Keegan ù have left the English four points behind the Swedes with one fewer game to play. Sweden, which has used solid defense and the Glasgow Celtic combo of Henrik Larsson and Johan Mjallby to dominate the group, figures to get the automatic berth, and Poland should hold off England for the playoff spot. They meet in Poland on Sept. 8, which is England’s finale. A Polish loss would likely leave them needing a tie Oct. 9 in Sweden, a meaningless match for their hosts. Group 6: Spain is clearly the class here, but its many routs ù 24 goals in its last three matches, two of them, alas, against San Marino ù haven’t done much to shake the Israelis. And although it seems ridiculous to think Spain won’t grab the 2000 berth, the Israelis probably aren’t going to go away. They’re two points back and still will be come the Oct. 9 showdown in the group finale in Spain. Austria’s also two points back, and Cyprus is three behind. So what? Neither is an issue. Group 7: Romania’s inability to beat Slovakia at home in March may prove the difference in its tight race with Portugal. The Iberians hold a one-point lead and can, barring a Hungarian upset on the final day, nail down their berth by playing Romania 0-0 Sept. 8 in Bucharest. Portugal has been on a romp, with five successive shutouts since falling to the Romanians at home last October, and Sergio Conceicao and Rui Costa have been in marvelous form. Romania has won its last three, and can again count on Gheorge Hagi, but it faces a tough clash at Slovakia on Sept. 4. Group 8: There’s plenty of soccer to be played here, what with five postponements caused by bombing in the Balkans, but already it’s down to the Yugoslavs and the Irish. Both have nine points, but Yugoslavia has five games to play and Ireland just four, depending on how UEFA deals with the Dublin match. Ireland needs a win over Yugoslavia to finish on top, but first place might not mean so much here. Unless Croatia makes it a three-team race ù and it has two games with Yugoslavia and another with Ireland ù the No. 2 team likely will grab the automatic second-place berth. If not, look for Portugal or Romania, from Group 7. Group 9: The Czechs pretty much plowed through everyone to grab the berth before summer. The race for second place is tight, with Scotland, Bosnia, Lithuania and Estonia within a point of each other. The Scots and Bosnians have four games left, the Baltic sides three apiece, and the two Scotland-Bosnia encounters (Aug. 18 in Scotland, Sept. 4 in Bosnia) might settle things. If not, the schedule favors Estonia, which plays at the Faeroe Islands and is home against Scotland and Bosnia. by Soccer America senior editor Scott French