Talent and home field make Netherlands the team to beat, but there are many challengers

“I heard the odds are 80-1 against us. Bet on Slovenia, and you will earn a lot of money.”

ù Zlatko Zahovic, Slovenia forward

The defending champs have fallen apart, the World Cup winner struggle against ù of all things ù Andorra, and the likeliest of favorites hasn’t beaten anybody in 15 months. The only teams worth getting excited about are best-known for choking on the biggest stages.

Somebody has to win the European Championship this summer, and it’s not going to be Slovenia. Just about any other guess has to be taken seriously: More than a half-dozen teams, including several that aren’t very good, appear capable of lifting the trophy July 2 at Rotterdam’s Stadion Feijenoord.

The Low Countries ù Belgium and the Netherlands ù are throwing a party starting June 10 in Brussels, and the theme is parity. For all the wrong reasons: The continent’s biggest powers (reigning titlist Germany, England and Italy) are slumping, and so are its best teams (World Cup champion France and the favored Netherlands). The cream, it appears, has settled.

Here’s a ranking of the 16 finalists:

1. NETHERLANDS (Group D). The Dutch have as much talent as any country on the planet, and home-field advantage should pay off more sweetly than it does for the Belgians. But they’ll need to perform better under Coach Frank Rijkaard, a key figure with the ’88 Euro winners, if they are to capture the crown. The Oranje hasn’t won in 11 outings, its superstars clearly uninterested in friendlies. Key player: Midfielder Edgar Davids.

2. SPAIN (Group C). Europe’s worst underachievers have the talent to win the title, but that hasn’t meant much in the past. Former Real Madrid great Jose Antonio Camacho, who took over in the wake of Spain’s ’98 disaster, got seven wins in seven qualifiers. The return of Pep Guardiola, who handles the playmaking chores in front of the back four, has been critical, as has the emergence of midfielder Luis Enrique. Key player: Guardiola.

3. FRANCE (Group D). The reigning World Cup champs staggered through most of qualifying, struggling against the likes of Armenia and Andorra as they continued to search for a true finisher while watching their normally staunch defense turn suspect. Coach Roger Lemerre has looked at a lot of youngsters, turning up midfielder Johan Micoud, who nicely complements Zinedine Zidane, a fellow product of Cannes’ youth program. Key player: Zidane.

4. ITALY (Group B). It should be no surprise that Dino Zoff, once the world’s best netminder, favors a defensive approach, but the Azzurri can be downright dour. They won just one of their final five qualifiers, which has much to do with the continuing midfield crisis. The defense, with Fabio Cannavaro and Alessandro Nesta in the middle and Paolo Maldini on the left, remains superb, enough so that the Italians can’t be counted out. Key player: Forward Christian Vieri.

5. GERMANY (Group A). The defending champions’ international free-fall skipped Euro 2000 qualifying. After an early hiccup (a 1-0 loss at Turkey), they went 6-0-1 and cruised into the finals. To do more, they must recapture their self-confidence, singed by the ’98 World Cup loss to Croatia and two defeats to the United States. The best balm: some creative players. Erich Ribbeck is always looking. Key player: Libero Lothar Matthaeus.

6. YUGOSLAVIA (Group C). War and politics kept an outstanding Yugoslav team out of the last two European Championships, but the Serbs return with plenty of talent ù veteran and novice ù to make a run for the title. Coach Vujadin Boskov is already working toward the future, replacing Dragan Stojkovic and Dejan Savicevic in midfield with Mateja Kezman and Goran Drulic. How well slumping Predrag Mijatovic returns from Achilles’ tendon surgery is key. Key player: Defender Sinisa Mihajlovic.

7. ENGLAND (Group A). Kevin Keegan’s got some great, young talent to work with, but he’s not yet figured out what to do with it. England stumbled through qualifying, especially up top, where aging Alan Shearer can’t seem to mesh with either Andy Cole or Michael Owen. This is a team in transition, a very inconsistent group, capable of in anything from three-and-out to winning it all. Likely something in between. Key player: Midfielder David Beckham.

8. PORTUGAL (Group A). The end nears for the “golden” generation of Portuguese stars who won two World Youth Championships, and still nothing. Luis Figo, Rui Costa, Paulo Sousa and Fernando Couto ù all at or near 30 ù have starred for the best European clubs, but they haven’t taken Portugal to a World Cup. A quarterfinal appearance in England, where they tanked against the Czech Republic, is all they have to show for their efforts. What’s needed is a finisher. Perhaps young Nuno Gomes will fill the void. Key player: Sousa.


Berger to miss first two games

9. CZECH REPUBLIC (Group D). The Czechs, more attack-minded than the group that lost in the Euro ’96 final, were perfect during qualifying under former standout Jozef Chovanec. They’ve looked suspect against experienced teams and lack a playmaker who can keep hulking forward Jan Koller supplied with chances. Patrik Berger, red-carded in the qualifying finale, will miss the first two games. Key player: Koller.

10. NORWAY (Group C). The Norwegians have come far since the early 1990s, from outsiders to European elite. It’s the product of former coach Egil Olsen’s philosophies (strong defense, long ball), to which successor Nils Johan Semb adheres, and a Viking invasion of the English Premier League. Tall forward Tore Andre Flo is the prime beneficiary of the kick-and-chase tactics, which causes havoc for some foes but not others. Key player: Flo.

11. SWEDEN (Group B). The Swedish defense is nearly impenetrable, a good thing because goalkeeper Magnus Hedman can be atrocious. Only one shot got past him during qualifying, the result of a backline that features Teddy Lucic, Patrik Andersson and Joachim Bjorklund. The attack will suffer without Henrik Larsson, who may not be able to return in time from a broken leg, and there remains no role for the creative Par Zetterberg. Key player: Midfielder Stefan Schwarz.

12. BELGIUM (Group B). Robert Waseige, hired in August, took a squad that had won twice the previous 11 months and quickly turned it into a team to be feared. The revolution has been purely psychological: He hasn’t changed players, just made them believe in themselves. The returns of Gilles De Bilde to form and Luc Nilis from self-imposed exile adds to a strong attack, but will it overcome lax defending? Key player: Midfielder Marc Wilmots.

13. ROMANIA (Group A). The Romanians were unbeaten but troubled during qualifying, and Victor Piturca’s ouster has cheered the veterans. Gheorges Hagi and Popescu lead a still-influential old guard, but Emeric Ienei ù Piturca’s successor ù has begun integrating young stars such as midfielder Laurentiu Rosu and forward Adrian Mutu. Key player: Hagi.

14. TURKEY (Group B). The Turks have matured plenty since they were shut out three times at Euro ’96, their first major tournament since the 1954 World Cup. All the key figures are back, including forward Hakan Sukur and linkman Sergen Yalcin, and they can expect strong support from their expatriate countrymen in Western Europe. The weakest first-round group won’t hurt, either. Key player: Yalcin.

15. DENMARK (Group D). The Danes are still adjusting to life without the Laudrups, quite nicely thanks to forward Jon Dahl Tomasson, who scored six goals in the final five qualifiers. A poor qualifying start prompted Coach Bo Johansson to make eight changes in the team, which responded with six successive wins to qualify. It should find Group D far tougher. Key player: Tomasson.

16. SLOVENIA (Group C). Slovenia was the weakest country, soccer-wise, to emerge from Yugoslavia’s splintering, but former star player Srecko Katanec has turned things around, instilling discipline and confidence to pull off the biggest surprise of qualifying. Zlatko Zahovic is a world-class attacker, but the talent pool isn’t very deep. Key player: Zahovic.

by Soccer America senior editor Scott French in Amsterdam