In recent years, powerhouses have dominated during the regular season only to fall, often quickly, in the NCAA Tournament. Indiana's strategy of scheduling tough road games has gotten the Hoosiers ready for the postseason. They will make their sixth consecutive trip to the College Cup and take the title.
When INDIANA, VIRGINIA, STANFORD and the defending national champion each have at least seven starters back from teams that compiled a combined 75-12-3 record and .900 winning percentage last season, it would seem easy to pick the College Cup quartet.
But that would be forgetting that ST. JOHN'S, for example, has nine starters returning from its national semifinal squad. It would also be ignoring a recent pattern in men's college soccer: regular-season dominance does not guarantee postseason success.
Just ask NORTH CAROLINA, which entered the 2000 NCAA Tournament ranked No. 1 and bowed out in the quarterfinals. Yet last year, when the Tar Heels had four losses, including one in the ACC Tournament, they captured their first national championship.
In recent years, CLEMSON, Duke, Virginia, SAINT LOUIS, SAN DIEGO and SMU – along with a handful of teams from lower-profile conferences – have entered the playoffs with fewer than two losses but fell short of the College Cup.
''At the end of the season, it's a mentality that gets you through,'' Clemson coach Trevor Adair said. ''When the pressure is on, some players don't respond and some players do. It's a matter of getting more players that do respond than do not.''
The compact, 11-week regular season sometimes passes too quickly to provide proper preparation for the sudden-death nature of the tournament.
Indiana coach Jerry Yeagley tries to maximize that tight schedule by playing as many tough opponents on the road as possible. The strategy has worked – the Hoosiers are aiming for their sixth – sixth! – consecutive trip to the College Cup. And there is little reason to believe they won't be there. In addition to having seven starters back, including the potent scoring duo of Pat Noonan and Mike Ambersley, Indiana has an ace up its sleeve. Playmaker Ryan Mack, who missed all of last season with injury, will complete his final year of eligibility. Watching Mack combine with Ned Grabavoy, Danny O'Rourke, Brian Plotkin and the underrated Vijay Dias should shatter the stigma of unimaginative soccer sometimes pinned on Indiana.
Perhaps no team knows the pain of the playoffs better than Virginia, which has a .755 winning percentage in five seasons under George Gelnovatch but since being runner-up in his first year has been bounced three times in the quarterfinals. Last year the Cavaliers suffered injuries to forward Ryan Gibbs and defender Jon Cole in the ACC Tournament and lost their first tournament game to Seton Hall. That team, however, was the first to win all its ACC games by shutout, and the linchpins of that defense – Cole, Matt Oliver and Kenny Arena – are back. Furthermore, Gibbs and junior Alecko Eskandarian are nearly impossible to keep quiet up top.
North Carolina proved it had the organization, discipline and guts to survive single-elimination last season, and its core of Logan Pause, David Testo and David Stokes returns. The Tar Heels' challenge will be compensating for the loss of steady defenders Chris Leitch and Danny Jackson, now in MLS. Also gone is flank phenom Noz Yamauchi and charismatic Michael Ueltschey in goal. The latter will likely be replaced by U-20 goalkeeper Ford Williams, but Coach Elmar Bolowich will have to find a new offensive spark when the middle of the field is clogged.
Stanford coach Bret Simon said the two teams ''most scary to me on paper'' are Indiana and Virginia, but his own team returns seven starters and adds U.S. U-20 defender Chad Marshall to its defense, which lost Aaron Biddle and Lee Morrison to graduation. Midfielders Johannes Maliza and Abe Geiger will be feeding the relentless Roger Levesque, while crafty defender Todd Dunivant supports the attack.
''There are too many good teams, too much parity – really no one knows what will happen,'' Simon said. ''With a 9.9 scholarship cap, no team is so deep that it can afford a lot of injuries, so no team is a wrap to go anywhere.''
So for those in Dallas, where the College Cup will be held in December, don't start printing the programs yet.
By sheer number of quality teams, the Big East probably is the nation's strongest conference and was rewarded with a record six bids to last year's dance. St. John's reeled in CONNECTICUT by winning the conference tournament, RUTGERS is of the same ilk, and NOTRE DAME is knocking on the door. Any of those three could be considered the favorite, but the edge goes to UConn for its international flavor.
Jamaican Shavar Thomas, a midseason addition last year, takes over the defensive reins for Chris Gbandi and will be flanked by Will Thornton. Damani Ralph and Anthony Curtis spearhead the attack, which should regain the services of junior target man Cesar Cuellar, whose 2001 campaign was cut short by knee injury. Among Coach Ray Reid's new additions are South African midfielder Mpho Moloi, Swedish defender Marcus Svensson and Brazilian midfielder Leandro de Oliveira.
St. John's will not have quite that level of diversity, but it will have continuity. Granted, blue-chippers Shalrie Joseph and Jeff Matteo finished up, but the Red Storm has the rest of its balanced squad again. Junior Chris Wingert patrols the back line, while senior Alberto Duenas, junior Angel Rodriguez and sophomore Simone Salinno form a fluid midfield.
Rutgers' Guy Abrahamson is one of the nation's elite defenders and hopes to welcome co-captains David Boutilier and Todd Moser back with him when they recover from major injuries suffered last season. Freshman Sammy Castellanos looks to complement junior Sherif El Bialy and sophomore Chris Karcz in the attack.
Notre Dame coach Bobby Clark brings back nine starters from a team that went 7-3 in conference play last season. Top scorers Erich Braun and Devon Prescod, who combined for 18 of the team's 33 goals, start at forward. Senior Justin Ratcliffe is the midfield ballwinner.
Although Virginia is the unanimous favorite in the ACC, and North Carolina the national champ, Clemson proved last year that favorites don't always win in this conference by defeating the Cavaliers in the ACC tournament final. The Tigers lost two nationally acclaimed talents in defender Oguchi Onyewu (French club Metz) and forward Ian Fuller (New England Revolution) but return eight starters and 16 letterwinners. Defender Ricky Lewis is tough to beat, and midfielder Fabio Tambosi can unlock defenses.
Led by midfielder Brian Carroll, WAKE FOREST looks like the team the top three least want to face. Eight starters return, including defenders Kelvin Jones and Bobby Gehring and forwards Scott Sealy and Jeremiah White, who combined for 24 goals. Senior Aaron Thomas and sophomore Kevin Wickart, however, were dismissed for disciplinary reasons.
Don't sleep on Maryland, which has much chemistry to establish, but much talent to spare.
The Pac-10 was almost perfect last season: four of its five teams made the NCAA tournament. (Fresno State joins the Pac-10 for men's soccer this fall.)
WASHINGTON, UCLA and CALIFORNIA will again chase Stanford.
UW is gaining a reputation as an MLS feeder team – two more Huskies, Billy Sleeth and Zach Kingsley, made MLS clubs this season – and UW's hottest MLS prospect is sophomore midfielder C.J. Klaas.
Former Columbus Crew boss Tom Fitzgerald was the surprise choice to replace Todd Saldana at UCLA. Fitzgerald's first job: boosting his players' confidence. Stars Nelson Akwari (MetroStars) and Alex Yi (Belgian club Antwerp) turned pro early. The pressure will be on U-23 defender Scot Thompson and unheralded Leonard Griffin in the back, but freshman Jordan Harvey should help.
Cal finished fourth in the Pac-10 at 2-5-1. Bears coach Kevin Grimes says his team's tough schedule got it into the NCAA tournament. This year, 10 of its 20 games are against 2001 tournament teams. Grimes will count on an experienced defense to allow him time to break in his talented freshmen.
SMU's bid to become the first unbeaten and untied team since Howard in 1974 ended in the quarterfinals when St. John's beat the Mustangs. Another 21-game winning streak is unlikely this year, though Diego Walsh should emerge from the shadows of Luchi Gonzalez and Mohamed Fahim. The other seven returning starters are no slouches, either.
SMU's main competition in the Missouri Valley will come from CREIGHTON. Bluejays coach Bob Warming's first recruiting class since returning to Omaha includes players with an assortment of nationalities and backgrounds. Trinidadian Damien Westfield (69 goals in two seasons) arrives from Georgia JC power Young Harris. Roommates Kama Bennah, a Liberian, and Mehdi Ballouchy, originally from Morocco, lived together in California the past year.
Not even battling cancer has deterred Clive Charles' ambition of coaching both the men's and women's teams at PORTLAND. On the men's side, Charles has 13 newcomers to integrate, but with junior forward Nate Jaqua and senior goalkeeper Curtis Spiteri as the bookends, the Pilots should challenge for supremacy in the WCC.
At SANTA CLARA, a new era begins as longtime assistant Cam Rast takes over the program for Mitch Murray. Defender Ryan Cochrane and goalkeeper Steve Cronin are both on the U.S. U-20 team. Along with Steve McClain and Jamil Walker, the Broncos should be tough to score against.
Among the nine returning starters at San Diego are senior forward Ryan Coiner (12 goals) and the rest of the Toreros' offense: Eric Wunderle, Tyler Conley, Sy Reeves and Scott Burcar. USD is actually the coaches' pick to win the conference.
A two-horse race is likely to emerge in Conference USA between UAB and Saint Louis. The latter appears to be in a rebuilding year as eight departing players include Brad Davis and Dipsy Selolwane. If the senior Jack Jewsbury and the Billikens can prove they can score without that duo, they will threaten UAB. Senior defenders Jason Cole and Mike Kirchhoff will yield nothing easily.
UAB, in contrast, is looking to build on last year's success through eight returning starters. Senior forward Flavio Montiero, junior midfielder Marin Pusek and senior goalkeeper Clint Baumstark earned preseason conference honors.
Elsewhere, forward Aaron Paye (17, 9) leads a cast of 17 returning lettermen from last year's surprise NCAA quarterfinalists – FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON. The Knights will likely win their third straight Northeast Conference title.
Tony Sanneh's alma mater, WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE, has 10 starters back from its 18-5 season that ended in disappointment – a loss to Butler in the Horizon Conference tournament final and a loss to Missouri-Kansas City in the first round of the NCAAs. Goalkeeper Chris Dadaian and defender Chad Dombrowski hold down the fort while the addition of Trinidadian Julian Chang only strengthens the offense.
FURMAN will be young, but immensely talented, with midfielder Ricardo Clark leading the Paladins' charge. Coach Doug Allison's top-notch recruiting class includes Chefik Simo, Drew Moor, Josh Villalobos and Gray Griffin – all with U.S. youth national team experience – plus Rhett Abraham of Trinidad.
Independent SOUTH CAROLINA will again test itself against the nation's top teams in search of an at-large bid in the program's 25th year. Forwards Ricky Quest and Jordan Quinn are a dangerous combo.
KENTUCKY has won 11 straight games in the Mid-America Conference and served warning for this year's tournament by taking Clemson to triple overtime. Australian Nathan Fleetwood is a force in midfield.
by Soccer America Senior Editor Will Kuhns