Most pundits believe this year’s MLS Most Valuable Player award will either go to Juan Pablo Angel of the New York Red Bulls, or D.C. United’s Luciano Emilio, the top two scorers in the league this season with 19 and 20 goals, respectively. The North Jersey Herald’s Ives Galarcep says Angel should win it, because the Red Bulls “would be completely lost without him,” whereas Emilio plays on a team that would definitely survive without him.

Galarcep says the stats back this up. Angel has scored 19 goals in 23 appearances, compared to Emilio’s 20 goals in 28 appearances. Fourteen of Angel’s goals either tied the score or gave the Red Bulls the lead in addition to three of his four assists. Emilio, meanwhile, posted just eight in the same category. Moreover, Angel either scored or assisted on 10 game-winning or game-tying goals for the Red Bulls this season — that’s out of a possible 13 games won or drawn in which he played. Emilio, on the other hand, registered a game-winning or game-tying goal or assist in just five games out of a possible 23.

Says Galarcep: “Ultimately, it boils down to the fact Angel has found a way to score important goals on a consistent basis despite playing in front of an erratic midfield and despite being the unquestioned No. 1 target of opposing defenses.” Emilio, meanwhile, plays in front of the league’s best midfield.