Ten games across 257 days will determine whether the United States is among 32 nations headed for Japan and Korea for the 2002 World Cup. The campaign begins Feb. 28 against Mexico.
Bruce Arena is not looking at the big picture right now. Too much is going to change during the next eight months for the U.S. national team coach to think about the final round of qualifying as one entity.
“I don’t think you can lay out your plan for 10 games before you even start the competition,” Arena said.
The schedule is strange, rife with irregularities. A game each at the ends of February, March and April is followed by a month without a match, then two games within one week during June. Another pair of games within four days comes in September. The only pattern for the United States: It will alternate between home and away matches throughout.
“I have not put any time into anything except this first game and realizing that there are big issues with the double dates,” Arena said. “It makes no sense to put any kind of time and energy into these other games right now, except for the administrative concerns.”
Besides obvious physical concerns with playing two highly important international matches within four days, Arena expects player availability to be even more complicated than usual for those games.
THE PLAYERS. Arena has talked about wanting to establish a lineup. He used 31 players in the six-game semifinal round, and he would like to maintain more continuity in this year’s qualifiers.
The primary purpose of the team’s recent training camp and friendlies against China and Colombia was to develop the fitness of players, most from MLS, who have not played much recently. Although Arena evaluated some players, he was not searching for starters.
“I’ve probably known what the lineup has been for the Mexico game for a couple of months, so it’s not like I’m trying to figure out a lineup,” Arena said. “It’s been pretty obvious to me for a long time. … We have a definite plan for the first game, in how we’re going to play and who we’re going to play, but it’s something we don’t feel needs to be public information. …
“It doesn’t hurt us at all [to not release the lineup], so I don’t see how there’s a downside, other than the fact that the press drives you crazy. There’s no way anyone in the world could possibly guess our lineup, since we’ve never had our whole team together.”
And the realities of injuries, suspensions and club commitments mean that teams must be ready to adapt to missing players. Arena expects yellow cards to play a more significant role in this round since there are more games and any two cautions result in a one-game suspension.
Also reducing the chances Arena will use the same players throughout the 10 games is that so many of his top choices play in Europe. He has voiced a greater commitment to players who are in season and playing for their clubs, so the lineup against Mexico is likely to feature fewer MLS players than a match in mid-summer.
STYLE OF PLAY. World Cup qualifiers are notoriously cautious games, with visiting teams looking to secure a valuable point with a tie.
Thirteen of 30 games during the 1997 CONCACAF Hexagonal ended without a winner, and the three teams that advanced – Mexico, United States and Jamaica – tied at least half their games.
This year’s contenders appear capable of scoring goals and willing to go after them.
“The only game in the last round that we played a conservative style was at home against Costa Rica,” Arena said. “You’re not going to see Jamaica playing real conservative, nor Trinidad. I think Mexico will be [conservative], and I think Costa Rica will look different at home than they do on the road. Honduras … is obviously an attack-oriented team.”
The strategy of playing for ties on the road will be discarded when some teams fall behind.
“The way you play will depend on where you stand,” Arena said. “The opening games could be tense, but as you move forward during the competition, where you stand in the group will dictate how you play.”
As for the U.S. team, Arena wants to see a more potent attack than he saw in 2000.
“We have generally been fairly solid on the defensive end of the field. That continues to be a strength of ours, and it needs to be in this round. We’ve got to find more ways to get goals from more people. We need to be better at our set plays and better in the run of play.”
THE COMPETITION. In 1997, the United States earned 10 of its 17 points in games against El Salvador and Canada, outscoring them by a combined 11-3. In place of those two this time are Honduras and Trinidad & Tobago, both group winners in the semifinal round.
“Not to knock El Salvador and Canada, but all the teams in this group are at a higher level than those two teams were,” Arena said. “From top to bottom, it’s clearly going to be a close competition. … I would be absolutely shocked if anyone put themselves in a position where they’ve qualified after seven or eight games.”
Mexico, based its history of success at its high-altitude, high-hostility home venue of Azteca Stadium, is the favorite.
“For Mexico, we’re very familiar with the team, and I think we match up favorably with Mexico,” Arena said. “Obviously, we need to be aware of Luis Hernandez, his speed in the counterattack and the individual qualities he brings to the game. We need to be aware of the kind of game that [Jorge] Campos plays in the goal. … People don’t give Mexico a lot of credit for this, but they are tremendous with attacking restarts – corners and free kicks.”
By the end, the teams that earn the most points on the road will advance. Arena was generally pleased with his team’s outings to Guatemala, Costa Rica and Barbados last round. The team will continue to spend as few days as possible in the countries it visits.
Qualification for this round came down to the last game for most teams; Arena thinks this round will be tighter.
“I think we’ll find that there is not a big gap between anybody,” he said. “Home-field advantage is going to be a big factor, and Mexico has a huge advantage there. That’s why Mexico should be the favorite – they have unusual advantages playing at home. Given that, we probably are in the worst situation because we don’t have a real home field or consistently had a real advantage anywhere – at least we haven’t in the past, so we’ll find out now.”
by Soccer America associate editor Will Kuhns