Reuters has an interesting report about bookmakers’ unimpressive record in their tournament predictions. As much as the favorites always seem to do well at the World Cup, the final is seldom between the top two favorites prior to the tournament’s start. France began the tournament as 14-1 outsiders to win before dropping to 25-1 after drawing their first two games against Switzerland and South Korea. In fact, before their game against Togo, France’s record since hoisting the Cup in ’98 is far from impressive: with no goals in three games, they finished last in their group in 2002, they put in four very erratic performances at Euro 2004 before losing in the quarterfinals to Greece, and they struggled mightily through qualifying just to get to Germany. All considered, 14-1 doesn’t sound so bad after that. Italy’s recent record at major tournaments wasn’t too impressive either: a second-round defeat to co-host South Korea after a very poor group stage, was followed by a first-round exit at Euro 2004 (to be fair they couldn’t get out of a tight group with five points). Qualifying, though, was easy for Italy, and a series of impressive friendly wins against the likes of Germany and the Netherlands put them at 10-1 odds to win it all. Brazil of course were the overwhelming favorites to win, maintaining 5-2 odds before losing to France. The second tier of favorites were Argentina, Germany, and England, at between 8 and 9-1 odds. For those betting on the finalists, the favorite was a repeat of the 2002 final, Brazil-Germany at 14-1 odds. Italy vs. France, on the other hand, would have paid you 50-1.