By Ridge Mahoney in Hamburg
The final days of group play are upon us.
Slots are still to be decided in several groups, of course, and oh, yes, the USA staffers will be keeping an eye on the Italy-Czech Republic game, but there isn't any room for manuevering, since the Americans must beat Ghana to have any chance and would still fall short if the other game ends in a tie unless they overpower Ghana by at least four goals. Probably.
The jockeying began in Groups A-D, where the round-of-16 participants were already decided in these groups. Those teams played Tuesday and Wednesdat for their placements in the knockout phase's bracket. Group winners play second-place teams via the following formula:
Group A winner (Germany) vs. Group B runner-up (Sweden);
Group B winner (England) vs. Group A runner-up (Ecuador);
Group C winner (Argentina) vs. Group D runner-up (Mexico)
Group D winner (Portugal) vs. Group C runner-up (Netherlands)
and so on for group combinations E-F, and G-H.
The Group A, C, E and G winners and their second-round opponents compete in the top half of the bracket; the Group B, D, F and H winners and their opposition move into the bottom half.
Group F favorite Brazil hasn't looked impressive in winning its first two games, and Group E is so wide-open any team will be happy just to get out of group play. Still, Italy holds the high cards and with a tie will win the group unless Ghana beats the U.S. The Americans can't win the group but after being pasted by the Czech Republic 3-0 in their first game will take a date with Brazil. Gladly. The Group E games are the afternoon (German time) kickoffs on Thursday, Group F plays in the evening.
Teams in Group G might be pondering ways to avoid Spain, which blasted Ukraine in its opener 4-0 and beat Tunisia 3-1 Monday, but Switzerland, South Korea and France will be worried enough about advancing, period. It's possible all three teams could finish with five points — with Togo on the bottom at zero — if the French beat Togo Friday and the Swiss and South Koreans tie.
Most stark is the possibility that the French, winners in 1998 and first-round casualties in 2002, could beat Togo to finish unbeaten with one win and two ties, yet be squeezed out on total goals. Switzerland leads on goal difference (the first tiebreaker — plus-2: 2-0 goal difference), South Korea has scored more goals (tiebreaker number two — 3: 3-2 goal difference). So the French (1-1 goal difference) need not only a win, but goals. But if they win by two goals or more and Switzerland ties South Korea, the Bleus win the group. South Korea trails Switzerland on goal difference and thus needs a win to guarantee advancement.
At the World Cup, as is often the case in life, you must be willing to do the math.