If all the scenarios that can take place Friday are considered equally possible, the United States has a roughly 80 percent chance of advancing to the second round. A win or a tie against Poland clinches the United States' passage to the second round. A loss to Poland means the U.S. must hope for a South Korea victory or a lopsided Portugal victory — not a tie. Teams finishing first and second qualify for the second round. Teams equal on points are ranked according to the following criteria: a) Goal difference in all group matches
b) Goals scored in all group matches
c) Score of direct encounter
d) Drawing of lots
Here are the possibilities: U.S. win over Poland, South Korea win over Portugal = U.S. and South Korea advance. (Each with 7 points, tiebreakers will determine placing) U.S. win over Poland, South Korea-Portugal tie = U.S. and South Korea advance. (U.S. 1st, South Korea 2nd) U.S. win over Poland, Portugal win over South Korea = U.S. and Portugal advance. (U.S. 1st, Portugal 2nd) U.S.-Poland tie, South Korea win over Portugal = U.S. and South Korea advance. (South Korea 1st, U.S. 2nd) U.S.-Poland tie, South Korea-Portugal tie = U.S. and South Korea advance. (South Korea 1st, U.S. 2nd — on goal differential.) U.S.-Poland tie, Portugal win over South Korea = U.S. and Portugal advance. (Portugal 1st, U.S. 2nd) Poland win over U.S., South Korea win over Portugal = U.S. and South Korea advance. (South Korea 1st, U.S. 2nd) Poland win over U.S., South Korea-Portugal tie = South Korea and Portugal advance. (South Korea 1st, Portugal 2nd — Portugal beats U.S. on goal differential) Poland win over U.S., Portugal win over South Korea = Portugal advances; U.S. advances if: – South Korea's margin of defeat is two or more goals greater than the U.S. margin of defeat. (i.e. Poland 1, U.S. 0; Portugal 3, South Korea 0) OR – South Korea's margin of defeat is one more than the U.S. margin of defeat AND the U.S. maintains its edge in goals scored (4 to 3 entering Friday's games). South Korea advances if the U.S. margin of defeat is the same or greater than that of South Korea. NOTE: If they both lose, it's possible for the U.S. and South Korea to end up tied for second on points, goal differential and goals scored and since they tied each other, passage to the next round would be determined by drawing of lots.