World Cup: The SA editors predict…

On the eve of France ’98, the SA editors take a moment to give their thoughts and predictions about the upcoming tournament:

PAUL KENNEDY

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: Where do I begin? Well, for the USA to advance, it will take everything to go well in about eight categories. (1) There’s no worry in goal with Keller, but it will take an effort like Kasey pulled off against Brazil to get a result against Germany and Yugoslavia. (2) Thomas Dooley’s ability to last all three games is a question mark. His tackling has looked suspect in recent friendlies since he’s moved back to sweeper in the 3-6-1. (3) Eddie Pope and David Regis are about as solid as they get in the U.S. lineup, but there are still question marks. Pope has a history of fitness trouble (Costa Rica ’97, Gold Cup ’98). With Regis, there’s the language question. (4) Can Chad Deering and Brian Maisonneuve handle the pressure? (5) Who to play on the right side in midfield? Frankie Hejduk looked promising before he got hurt, but he’s inexperienced. Mike Burns is experienced, but well… (6) Cobi Jones, on the left side, can look great one day and invisible the next. Which player will we see more often? (7) As far as Claudio Reyna goes, there’s always the health factor. Also: How will the U.S. adjust if other teams key on him? (8) Ernie Stewart has looked promising as the withdrawn striker, but he has a history of being inconsistent, as well as missing his chances. (9) Finally, up front, will Eric Wynalda be anywhere close to being fit? If not, what’s the alternative? Brian McBride isn’t that mobile; Roy Wegerle has been ineffective this spring. My choice would be to go with Joe-Max Moore — he’s a fighter. Well, I had nine issues — which, I guess, underscores the difficulty of the task at hand for the United States. On general trends to watch at France ’98: I think the obvious trend to watch for will be the number of red cards. Will teams adjust? Will referees become more lenient as the tournament goes on? Goalscoring should increase, but how much remains to be seen. With just two teams per group going through, winning is much more important this time. Three ties will not be enough, in all likelihood, for a team to advance. It will be interesting to see how much teams pack the midfield. There will be few playmakers of note. On the players to watch: It would be a disaster for Brazil if it doesn’t do well and the key is Ronaldo, probably the most unstoppable player in the game. Right behind is Predrag Mijatovic of Yugoslavia. For France to do well, a young player like David Trezeguet or Thierry Henry will have to step up. Italy has some great strikers, though you wonder whether Alessandro Del Piero will fade like he did at Euro ’96. Roberto Baggio could be in for a comeback. Predictions I have to stick with what I had in the June 15 issue of Soccer America and was posted on www.socceramerica.com recently: Spain first, Germany second, France and Argentina out in the semifinals. Top scorer: Ronaldo. MVP: Zinedine Zidane.

DUNCAN IRVING

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: The U.N. and FIFA kicking Yugoslavia out of the World Cup for the Kosovo massacres; the German team being unilaterally stricken with gastric flu, so the physios have to suit up; and Iran to be as bad as I think they are. In short, luck, and a lot of it. My feeling is that we’ll see a 1-1-1 record and they’ll leave after the first round, along with 15 other teams. We’ll hear a lot about what an achievement just reaching the World Cup is, and how “We’re No. 31!”. On general trends to watch at France ’98: Red cards for tackles from behind is a no-brainer. Will the refs steel themselves and see red? Will Nigeria learn to tackle in time, and what about the Oscar-winning performances for poleaxed attackers? Oh, and a continuation of players continually miming card signs at refs, only they’ll take the method approach when asking for a red. I think coaches will be a lot more cautious tactically until they can see what this ruling is about and whether the refs will enforce it. So, I expect a lot of tied opening games. Off the field, I also anticipate a six-week moratorium on political correctness and the quadrennial descent into xenophobia, snap-judgments, racial stereotypes, wartime analogies and “that would never have been a card back homes.” I’ve seen too many World Cups to expect anything different. On the players to watch: Ronaldo, obviously, although I think he’ll be under a lot of pressure to carry Brazil, especially since Romario is hurt. I like the Italian strikers, if they can get some decent midfield support, and most of the usual suspects — Spain’s Raul, Yugoslavia’s Predrag Mijatovic, England’s Alan Shearer, Bulgaria’s Hristo Stoichkov, Argentina’s Gabriel Batistuta, Chile’s Marcelo Salas and Ivan Zamorano and Germany’s Oliver Bierhoff — to perform to at least a fraction of their paychecks. What I’ll be interested in is seeing how players like the ones who’ve stunk it up at Milan this season will perform. This means YOU, Patrick Kluivert. Michael Owen, alas, is not the new Pele. Predictions: Winner: Argentina — they’re a good team, young, largely overlooked, and if their group goes to form, they won’t face a decent opponent until the quarters. Runner-up: Spain — Their time has come (we’ve said that before, but this time we really mean it). They’ll do well in spite of their coach, and their league is easily the most entertaining in Europe. Third: Italy — Not as bad as everybody thinks. Del Piero, Filippo Inzaghi and Christian Vieri are too good to draw blanks for too long. Fourth: Yugoslavia — Good strikers, great midfield and everyone thinks they’ll choke. They’ll be playing for pride and World Cups normally get a “surprise team” in the final four (Remember how close we were to a Bulgaria-Sweden final in ’94? — I know, it’s scary) Leading scorer: Batistuta MVP: Ariel Ortega. Duds: Nigeria, England. Teams that will also do well: Netherlands, Germany.

RIDGE MAHONEY

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: The few chances they create must test the opposing keeper, and during the inevitable lulls, the U.S. must at least defend doggedly so the opposition’s opportunities are relatively few. Every midfield player must work hard and track intelligently so Reyna has as much space as possible to make plays. Regardless of the result against Germany, the U.S. must recover strongly enough to beat Iran decisively to have any real chance of advancing. This may mean keeping it very tight against the Germans for most of the match. If any of the younger players freeze up under the pressure, Sampson will have to make adjustments and/or substitutions perhaps earlier than he wants to. If more than two among the attacking corps of Wynalda, Ramos, Reyna, Moore and Stewart are hampered by injury or poor form, the already slim chance to advance virtually disappears. On general trends to watch at France ’98: How teams approach the first game, with the melding of three points for a win and only the top two teams in each group advancing. If a seeded team is tied late in a match, both it and the underdog may attack, instead of taking the point as would have been the case prior to 1994 with only two points for a win and four third-place teams progressing. How will teams handle the cloudy interpretation of sliding tackles from behind? They may be more reluctant not only to tackle, but to play the offside trap, since if the trap is sprung, a defender’s sole recourse is usually to tackle from behind. On the players to watch: Without Romario, Ronaldo may be chopped to pieces unless Rivaldo and Roberto Carlos can run past defenders. If Dunga’s legs start to falter, we may see Doriva, who impressed me at the Gold Cup but is still unproven. If Argentine midfielder Marcelo Gallardo (22) can pull the strings, Argentina has a real shot to take the tin pot, although Passarella not taking Fernando Redondo still bewilders me. I’m hoping Roberto Baggio can recapture the magic of ’94, but the Italians need strong midfield performances. Ravanelli? I know Zola’s been hurt, but Jeeez! Gianluca Pagliuca is a good keeper, and maybe a bit stronger on crosses, yet the injured Angelo Peruzzi is a shade better, particularly on reflex saves. Predictions: Teams that will flop: South Africa, France, Cameroon, Mexico. Team that will surprise: South Korea. Semifinalists: Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Yugoslavia (if it wins Group F). The South Africans’ lineup is dotted with players from less-than-significant clubs, and will not respond well to the pressure. The French may respond, but I’d be stunned if they reach the semis. Spain has to break through some day, yet will likely meet Brazil in the quarters — and could beat the champs, too! I have no idea what Nigeria will bring; Bora is a shrewd manipulator, and the reports on the “group of death” are premature.

MIKE WOITALLA

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: Four years ago. I believe I looked at the first-round competition and practically dismissed the U.S. chances. I’ll be more careful this time, but must mention that Yugoslavia and Germany pose even greater threats to U.S. success than did Colombia, Switzerland and Romania. Besides, third place was good enough for the U.S. to go through in 1994. Not so this time. The U.S. must be better than either Yugoslavia or Germany. (I’m not dismissing Iran, but if we can’t count on a U.S. victory against the Iranians — forget about it!) The key for U.S. success is that it finds ways into the attack other than through Claudio Reyna. I certainly expect him to be the key U.S. player, the man who pulls the strings. But if he’s the only attacking threat, it will be too easy for opponents to shut him down. That’s why the U.S. needs a healthy Tab Ramos and a healthy Eric Wynalda. Ramos can break down a defense and Wynalda’s nose for the goal is golden. I like the idea of using skillful players like Brian Maisonneuve and Chad Deering as defensive midfielders, because their good passing will be crucial. But they’ll be under major pressure to keep track of attacks through the midfield. If they can hold up, things could look good. Let it be said that this group is so strong, a U.S. failure to reach the second round would not be a great shame if they give a spirited performance. The final key, of course, is Kasey Keller’s ability to play like he did against Brazil. On general trends to watch at France ’98: Will the refs have the guts to show red cards for the tackle from behind? If they don’t, it’s FIFA’s fault for not giving them the confidence to take action. And why the heck did FIFA pick the World Cup to make this change? MLS showed that introducing it in league play is the way to go. It gives players a chance to falter — receive a red card because they weren’t used to the change — without such drastic repercussions. Missing an early season league game is not as bad as missing a World Cup game. Let us hope the refs show the red cards for tackles from behind to finally get rid of this plague on soccer. If a player beats his opponent, that opponent shouldn’t have the right to take him down from the blindside. I’ll predict that, as in USA ’94, the first-round games will be more entertaining than the later rounds. Teams will have to take chances and win big — for goal difference purposes — because only two teams go through. Letting third-place teams reach the second round has hurt the World Cup since 1986 because it invited tie games. In the second round, the pressure on the powers that are eyeing the trophy will be so big that caution could prevail. As the African saying goes, when two giant elephants fight, it’s only the ground that gets damaged (or something like that). I just don’t see an Argentina-Germany matchup, or a Brazil-Italy game in which the teams are willing to go for goal. I hope I’m wrong. I hope it will be like the 1996 Olympics, where Argentina, Brazil, Ghana and winner Nigeria played attack-minded soccer. Nigeria attacked so much that it didn’t matter how suspect its defense was. I see Argentina and Brazil as the prime candidates to give us some thrilling soccer. Argentina has a weak first group, which should allow it to find its rhythm by the second round. Hopefully, that rhythm means putting the opponent on its heels. I hope Brazil doesn’t do what it did in 1994 — rely on a workmanlike midfield to shut down opponents and depend on an excellent striking pair. Of course, even that Brazil was the best thing out there. I am also quite fond of Spain and France, and think it would be great to see either win its first World Cup. On the players to watch: There’s a guy named Ronaldo who’s supposed to be pretty good… Gabriel Batistuta is an amazing forward. Raul of Spain needs a good World Cup to become a true world star. Ariel Ortega of Argentina is likely to emerge as the world’s most exciting playmaker. As for a pure goalscorer — Germany has two in Oliver Bierhoff and Ulf Kirsten. They live for scoring. They could revitalize the breed of players who specialize in scoring and put to rest some of this hogwash about the need for all-around players. If all you do is score — I say that’s good enough. Marcelo Salas of Chile is also a likely candidate to thrill the fans. Predictions: Winner — Argentina Runner-up — Germany Beaten semifinalists — Spain, Brazil Top scorer — Ulf Kirsten MVP — Ariel Ortega

DEAN CAPARAZ

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: It’s simple: the U.S. needs to score a lot more goals than it has lately if it’s going to advance to the quarterfinals, as I predict. The combination of a healthy Eric Wynalda, a healthy Tab Ramos and a healthy Claudio Reyna will orchestrate the attack while the rock-solid defense and the goalkeeping of Kasey Keller persevere, at least until a quarterfinal loss to Argentina. On general trends to watch at France ’98: Look for more goals, more red cards and more confused referees than four years ago. On the players to watch: An older player who will star in France is Italy’s Roberto Baggio, while the youngsters to watch are the obvious: Brazil’s Ronaldo, Spain’s Raul and Nigeria’s Nwankwo Kanu. Also, Zinedine Zidane will make people forget his mediocre performance at Euro ’96. Germany’s Oliver Bierhoff emerges as a superstar. Predictions: Winner: Italy. Roberto Baggio — one of Italy’s goats in the ’94 final — again hits some key goals and gets the monkey off his back. Alessandro Del Piero is the tournament’s top goalscorer. Runner-up: Argentina. Daniel Passarella’s squad might not be the favorite but plays better as a team than the talented Brazilians, which Argentina beats in the semifinals. Third-place: Brazil. Its form leading up to the World Cup is no fluke. Mario Zagallo has the MVP in Ronaldo, but he will miss the injured Romario. Fourth-place: Germany. Berti’s boys overachieve in Klinsi’s swan song.

PETE BAILEY

On the keys to the USA’s advancing to the second round: The U.S. MUST capitalize on its scoring opportunities. Dismal finishing like we’ve seen in the past three friendlies will assure the USA of an early exit. It will be tough enough to create chances against the pressure of the Germans, so the American forwards must make the most out of every opportunity. If the U.S. manages to get a result against Germany, it must avoid a letdown against Iran. The national team has had a tendency to be overconfident at times and to play to the level of its opposition (cf. the Jamaica qualifier at RFK). A win (and a big one if at all possible) against Iran is vital. On general trends to watch at France ’98: I expect to see a number of red cards in the early matches and plenty of goals, but the play will probably become overly cautious after the first round ends. I also think that Esse Baharmast will become the first U.S. referee to work more than one World Cup match. He’s a quality ref to begin with, and he’s also had the advantage of working in a league (MLS) where the new red-card rules have already been in effect. On the players to watch: Ronaldo, Batistuta and Zidane should provide plenty of excitement. I expect Dutch playmaker Clarence Seedorf to have a big tournament, as will winger Marc Overmars, who appears to be fully recovered from his knee injury. There is much talk about Spain’s playmaker Raul, but keep an eye out for teammate Alfonso, whose nose for the goal is crucial to the team’s success. I will be interested to see if at age 37, Lothar Matthaeus will be able to duplicate the leadership and superb play that took the Germans to the 1990 title. Others to watch: Tore Andre Flo (Norway), Victor Ikpeba (Nigeria), Michael Owen (England), Ariel Ortega (Argentina). Predictions: Champion: Netherlands — the Dutch have a world-class keeper in Edwin Van Der Sar, a solid defense anchored by Jaap Stam and Michael Reiziger, blazing speed with Overmars on the flank and a playmaker who has already lifted a pair of European Cup trophies at age 22 (Clarence Seedorf). If Dennis Bergkamp recovers from his injured hamstring by the second round, the Dutch are poised to lift their first World Cup and put on a show while doing so. Runner-up: Germany Third Place: Brazil Fourth Place: Italy Top scorer: Ronaldo. MVP: Seedorf. Flops: Mexico, Paraguay, Croatia, Denmark. Could surprise: Saudi Arabia, Chile.